Weekly Mind Dump: Trump's Foreign Policy

An administration led by incompetents, infused with corruption and wracked by infighting - what could go wrong?

Week of 12/29/2024-1/4/2025:

On this, the fourth anniversary of the MAGA coup d’état against the U.S. government and days before Donald Trump returns to the presidency, I ruminate on what we can expect in foreign policy over the next four years. It’s still too early to pin down specifics given that Trump’s cabinet picks are not yet in place and that the controversy surrounding several is such that there’s no guarantee the Senate will confirm them. So, herewith, are my initial thoughts. Once Trump is in office and his national security team is in place, I’ll do a more extensive and thorough analysis as I have over the years when a newly elected president has entered the White House.

Issues

Let’s start with Trump’s campaign platform. It’s sketchy regarding foreign policy and national security. At least there is a platform — in contrast with 2020, when Trump and his GOP opted to have none. It boiled down to the Republican Party statement, “RESOLVED, That the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda.” In other words, “L’etat, c’est moi.”

They decided in 2024 that maybe that wasn’t the best approach after all. So, they put out a 16-page party platform covering all issues. On foreign policy, they listed:

1. The National Interest: Republicans will promote a Foreign Policy centered on the most essential American Interests, starting with protecting the American Homeland, our People, our Borders, our Great American Flag, and our Rights under God.

2. Modernize the Military

3. Strengthen Alliances

4. Strengthen Economic, Military, and Diplomatic Capabilities

5. Defend America’s Borders

6. Revive our Industrial Base

7. Protect Critical Infrastructure

Each heading contains a very brief elaboration. The “Strengthen Alliances” clause stands out given the ex-president’s previous intimations of withdrawing from NATO and his dissing of America’s friends during his first term. While it emphasizes “that our Allies must meet their obligations to invest in our Common Defense” and that “we will stand with Israel,” it goes on to contain traditional language about the importance of maintaining strong alliances.

Tellingly, however, while there is one mention about “countering China,” there is zero reference about Russia. And there is no mention about strengthening the role of the intelligence community or the role of intelligence.

People

The maxim, “personnel is policy” couldn’t be more relevant with the incoming administration. I’ve recently referred to Trump’s cabinet picks as creatures darting from Pandora’s Box and undead denizens from a Zombie Apocalypse. Not one given to understatement, I stand by my obloquy. Based on his choices to lead national security, you will be well justified in losing sleep over the next four years-plus. Either Trump is making his selections from a list provided by Vladimir Putin aimed at destroying the U.S. national security structure as well as democratic governance, or the president-elect’s runaway paranoia combined with his terminal stupidity is such that he, Nero-like, merely wishes to burn it all down for his own amusement.

Kash Patel, named to be FBI director, is a QAnon conspiracist who has essentially vowed to destroy the Bureau. John Ratcliffe, Trump’s nominee to head the CIA, has demonstrated his contempt for intelligence when he served briefly as Director of National Intelligence by skewing intel assessments to favor Trump and support his lies. Tulsi Gabbard’s slavishly parroting Putin’s propaganda is such that her loyalty is widely questioned. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz has come right out and said it: “There’s no question I consider her someone who is likely a Russian asset.” SECDEF nominee Pete Hegseth is an alcohol-abusing Fox News hack credibly charged with sexual assault and who has bankrupted two veterans non-profits. What these folks have in common is utter lack of qualifications to head the organizations they would lead.

Other Trump nominations aren’t off the qualifications reservation. Senator Marco Rubio has plenty of relevant political and foreign policy experience to be Secretary of State. Trouble is, he checked his manhood at the door, along with his pride and dignity, years ago after being publicly humiliated by Trump. A hardliner on Russia, how will he carry out his boss’s Putin-friendly policies? Rep. Mike Waltz, named as National Security Advisor is an ex-Green Beret who served on the House intelligence and foreign affairs committees.

Trump’s ambassadorial selections, so far, almost to a person, have little or no diplomatic experience and range from the usual wealthy campaign donors to an ex-con (Jared Kushner’s father-France) to utter nincompoops, such as retired football star and failed senatorial candidate Herschel Walker (Bahamas) and Don Jr.’s ex-girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle (Greece). Trump’s pick to be U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whittaker, is a far-right former acting AG who similarly possesses zero diplomatic background. As Trump's ambassador in Berlin, Richard Grenell — named as a special envoy — so offended Germans with his abrasive behavior and interference in German internal politics that there was a move in the Bundestag to get him expelled from the country. Mike Huckabee, to be ambassador to Israel, is a Christian fundamentalist who takes a biblical view toward his job: “We’re not dealing with an issue that is political, social, economic, or geographical. We’re dealing with an issue that is spiritual.” Trump has named as Special Envoy for Hostage Affairs Jared Kushner’s college roommate, a man with zilch relevant background.

In his first term, Trump broke the record in appointing political appointees over career diplomats as ambassadors — at over 43 percent. I’d not be surprised to see him exceed 50 percent this go-around.

Policies

With a national security team of mostly amateurs, unqualified hacks and ideologues, some of whom would not qualify to receive a security clearance were they mere job applicants, expect incompetence and chaos, and the nation being taken advantage of by adversaries. Add to this Trump’s pledge to purge the federal bureaucracy of thousands of career civil servants and hundreds of military brass.

Trump’s former national security advisor, John Bolton — who has described him as “unfit” to be president — recently told The Guardian:

The risk of an international crisis of the 19th-century variety is much more likely in a second Trump term. Given Trump’s inability to focus on coherent decision making, I’m very worried about how that might look.

Bolton is also worried about Trump pushing his national security team to break the law, which he discussed in a New York Times op-ed piece:

In the Defense Department, for example, where military officers are obligated not to follow illegal orders, what happens if Mr. Trump orders a domestic deployment that violates the Posse Comitatus Act? Will Pete Hegseth, whom Mr. Trump has chosen to be the secretary of defense, urge rescinding the order or just pass it along to the armed services? Will uniformed officers, perhaps advised by government lawyers, demur? How deep into the chain of command could this chaos extend, and what lasting damage might it cause?

Or, what if he pressed intelligence agencies to spy on Americans? Or, carry out torture? Would John Ratcliffe go along? Resist? Resign?

The Worst Case Scenario

Based on his first-term behavior, Trump will offend and alienate our allies to the point where he carries through on his earlier intimations to withdraw from NATO, prompting them to form a Europe/Canada-centered alliance. Putin-gushing Trump likewise could very well form a partnership with Moscow, giving the latter permission to step up hostile acts against NATO members, starting with the Baltic States and the Scandinavians. This after Trump sells out Ukraine. He may similarly revive his “love” affair with Kim Jong Un, then undercut support to South Korea, leading to instability on the Korean peninsula and potentially conflict. Virtually abandoned by Washington, Japan could make overtures to Beijing. Southeast Asian nations having territorial disputes with China will be more blatantly bullied by the latter.

Doubling tariffs on Chinese goods will raise tensions between the two countries. Depending on whether the whimsical president decides to also ratchet up tensions in other areas, or to suck up to Xi Jinping — in any case, the relationship becomes unstable, thereby raising the threat level.

An even more pro-Israel policy could lead Netanyahu to become even bolder in pursuing in his actions on the ground. Relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states will likely become even more transactional. Trump may feel emboldened to seek regime change in Iran, a course that would be fraught with dangers, not excluding Tehran going full nuclear.

A neglectful, contemptuous attitude toward developing (“shithole”) countries would drive many to abandon the U.S. altogether and make accommodations with Moscow and/or Beijing.

Virtually unconstrained corruption permeating the United States will extend to foreign policy, with Trump and his billionaire crony cabinet members making “deals” with other corrupt leaders to line their already bulging pockets.

And let’s not forget Trump’s recent madhatter offensive à l’outrance toward Denmark (over Greenland), Panama (over the canal) and Canada (annexation). His irresponsible pronouncements toward these close American friends can only be described as those of a sociopath.

Then there is the wild card — Elon Musk, who already feels unconstrained to conduct his own foreign policy as seen recently with his backing of Germany’s far-right, meddling into UK politics and fully backing Putin’s policies. Bent on becoming the world’s first trillionaire, power-mad Musk will also add significantly to burgeoning transnational corruption. His eerie hold on Trump can also take some disturbing turns.

Finally, the United States’ image as a beacon of democracy and human rights will end — at least for the duration of Trump’s term. The shining “city on a hill” will, under Donald Trump, devolve into a festering slum, a corrupt kakistocracy controlled by unbound plutocrats.

The Best Case Scenario

MAGA rule’s rank incompetence, vicious backbiting and self-inflicted wounds would limit the damage to our national security. An administration tied up in policy fecklessness, infighting, incoherence and isolationism may mitigate active damage to the nation’s security.

But don’t count it.

The opinions and characterizations in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent official positions of the U.S. government.