Weekly Mind Dump: The Statues Come Down in Syria & Geopolitics Takes a Turn

And - the coming kakistocracy: the worst and the dumbest about to take control in Washington.

Week of 12/1-12/7, 2024:

Russia’s Setback Provides Rare Opportunity for Washington and Its Allies

We have witnessed over the past week the familiar sight of a dictator’s statues being torn down by a jubilantly liberated population. The demise of the 53-year al-Assad father-son regime signals more than freedom for Syrians — it constitutes an important turning point in geopolitical dynamics, namely a reversal of Iranian and Russian power ambitions outside their borders and potential consequences to their autocratic rule within those borders.

The Axis of Autocracy — Russia, Iran, North Korea (but not China) suffered a serious blow with the collapse of the Syrian dictatorship. Moscow invested billions in the murderous regime since saving Bashar al-Assad’s government through military intervention in 2015, a year after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula on top of his support for separatist forces in Ukraine’s east.

The nexus of Russian power projection has centered on two military bases in Syria. Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, allowed Moscow to establish a naval base at Tartus in 1971. It hosted the Soviet Union’s the 5th Operational Squadron in the Mediterranean, meant to counterbalance to the U.S. Sixth Fleet headquartered in Italy. With the demise of the USSR, this fleet was disbanded. It has since been home to a handful of Russian frigates and support vessels. In 2017, Moscow announced it was establishing “a permanent grouping” at the Tartus naval facility. The naval base is Russia’s only warm-water naval base and provides Moscow access to the Mediterranean Sea. In 2019, Moscow signed a 49-year lease with Damascus. In 2015, Russia established an air force base at Hmeimim, near Damascus. It has been host to Russian jet fighters and auxiliary aircraft and has housed SIGINT operations.

These Syrian bases have been key to Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to make Russia a potent strategic rival to the U.S. and NATO, using them to project its power both into the eastern Mediterranean and into the broader Middle East as well as hubs for launching its expanding operations in Africa. Elimination the Tartus naval base, in particular, would constitute an extremely huge loss for Russia, removing it as a serious strategic actor in the Middle East, dealing a major blow to Putin’s great-power ambitions and signaling the decline of Russia’s global influence. Assad’s downfall, furthermore, discredits Russia as a reliable partner in the eyes of other dictatorships it supports.

There are also economic setbacks. Russia planned to use Syria to transport oil and gas to the Mediterranean, giving it access to European markets at some point. With Syria out of the picture, Turkey is now in a position to control almost all the oil and gas routes to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Finally, Syria possesses one of the largest phosphate deposits in the world, which Russian companies have mined. Used in fertilizers, phosphates are an important component of global food security.

But don’t count the Russian foothold out altogether. The Kremlin announced it will host “serious discussions” with the future Syrian authorities about keeping the bases and claims it has received positive signals from those now in control. Russia has moved several frigates and support vessels a few kilometers off the Syrian coast for the time being. A Kremlin spokesman stated that operations at both bases otherwise continue as normal and have not been attacked.

Well-connected Russian milbloggers, however, are expressing uncertainty about whether Russian forces will be able to maintain their operations in Syria, reporting they are hearing that continued Russian presence is “hanging by a thread.”

Putin is under steadily increasing pressure. Daily military personnel losses in the Ukraine conflict are at an all-time high, with over 700,000 killed and wounded thus far. The Russian economy is suffering on many fronts, including a weakening ruble, raging inflation, record high interest rates, labor shortages and failing infrastructure, notably the rails. Corruption also continues to undercut the defense industrial base, while military equipment stocks are dangerously low. Russia’s national wealth fund has plummeted in liquid value from approximately $140 billion in February 2022 to $53.8 billion today. In short, Russia is on the road to bankruptcy under current circumstances.

As Russia’s global standing and economy suffer, one speculates about the future of Putin’s rule. In power now for two-and-a-half decades, the 72-year old Russian autocrat has portrayed himself as a stabilizer domestically and a restorer of Russia’s power and glory abroad. He cannot, however, hope to retain his position if the economy tanks and strategic failures continue to mount. The siloviki and oligarchs are taking notice and inevitably will take action. He mirrors his erstwhile strategic partner, Bashar al-Assad. One-man dictatorships are rigid, yet brittle. Eventually, their leaders’ overreach and delusions catch up with them and they are overthrown. If I were Bashar and Vladimir, I’d be scouting real estate in North Korea.

As for Iran’s leaders, the fall of their partner in Syria, on top of the major damage done to them recently by Israel severely reduce their influence in the Middle East. They might also be wise to scout real estate elsewhere.

My suggestion to the incoming Trump administration: push Turkey’s leader Erdogan to pressure the key Syrian victors, whom they have heavily supported for years, to evict the Russians from their bases. Turkey, NATO and Washington’s Middle East allies would stand to benefit greatly.

But this requires wise and stable U.S. leadership. . .

The Emerging Kakistocracy in Washington Bodes Ill for U.S. Interests

. . . which isn’t happening. Donald Trump, whether from rank stupidity or intentional malice, or both, is doing his utmost to install the worst and the dumbest in top government positions. (Kakistocracy is a government run by the worst, least qualified, or most unscrupulous citizens.) A shallow and drunken sex offender as secretary of defense, an extremist political hack as head of the CIA, a Kremlin stooge as director of national intelligence, a crazed fascist as FBI director, etc. It’s as if he’s received his latest directive from Vladimir Putin providing a formula for destroying the United States.

Despite knowing the chaos and criminality of his first administration, American voters inexplicably decided they want more. Elect a clown and you get a circus. And the entire nation will suffer big time, including as we face adversaries abroad.

The opinions and characterizations in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent official positions of the U.S. government.