Robert Kagan, a Brookings Institution scholar, has a dire warning for us, one we would dismiss at our peril:
It would be foolish to imagine that the violence of Jan. 6 was an aberration that will not be repeated. Because Trump supporters see those events as a patriotic defense of the nation, there is every reason to expect more such episodes.
…the party’s main if not sole purpose today is as the willing enabler of Trump’s efforts to game the electoral system to ensure his return to power.
But this time, Trump would have advantages that he lacked in 2016 and 2020, including more loyal officials in state and local governments; the Republicans in Congress; and the backing of GOP donors, think tanks and journals of opinion. And he will have the Trump movement, including many who are armed and ready to be activated, again.
Mark me down as one of those who believe 1/6 was an earnest dress rehearsal for Donald Trump and his Vichy GOP to seize power via a coup - either a creeping one or a 1/6-style violent putsch. Such an effort, I posit, would gravely jeopardize the American Experiment and, quite possibly, spark a civil war. But there are actions that can be taken now to prevent, or, at least, defeat a coup attempt. But the operative word here is “now.”
In classic strongman fashion, Trump has methodically put into play the key measures to prepare for a coup:
Suborn congressional Republicans
Declare victory
Refuse to cede power
Smear the opposition constantly with fabricated charges of wrongdoing
Deny the truth
Create a Big Lie
Repeat the Big Lie over and over
Spread the lie via collaborationist right-wing media & congressional toadies
Delude followers with the Big Lie
Weaken the opposition through voter suppression & election subversion
The ground game entails replacing officials who manage elections at the state and municipal levels with obedient MAGA-troopers. These include poll watchers, precinct judges, county clerks, secretaries of state and state attorneys general who would rig election outcomes to favor Trump and his zombie acolytes.
If the GOP wins control of both houses of Congress, states could send rogue electors in 2024, or refuse to count the bona fide ones. If Republicans capture the House but not the Senate, a deadlock would trigger a contingent election in the House decided by state delegations. Either scenario would result in the GOP presidential candidate winning.
Election law scholar Richard Hasen describes GOP’s strategy as one of foisting a “respectable bloodless coup,” one “dependent upon technical legal arguments overcoming valid election results.”
Hasen recommends some mainly legislative measures to prevent an undemocratic GOP power grab, including: significantly raising the threshold for Congress to object to electors; revising rules to prevent “frivolous objections” to election outcomes; and specifying “failed” elections as only resulting from extraordinary events such as natural disasters or terrorist attacks. Finally, he advocates tightening up procedures for appointing electors.
Other Electoral Count Act reforms suggested by election experts include clarifying that Congress must count a state’s legitimately determined electors, and that the vice president has zero role in deciding disputes over the electoral count.
As commendable as these recommendations are, they are moot as long as the filibuster remains in place and Republicans remain hell-bent on nihilism as their governing philosophy. And we can also thank Senators Manchin and Sinema for ensuring none of the above is enacted.
Which gets us to nongovernmental means to thwart Trump’s slow motion coup.
In examining 12 attempted coups around the world since 1958, political scientist Stephen Zunes has found that eight were defeated by nonviolent resistance. In these cases, large numbers of outraged citizens formed alliances and then launched “direct action” in the form of strikes and mass demonstrations. What made their resistance successful was their flat-out refusal to recognize illegitimate authority and to mobilize to oppose it. Leaders for building a broad alliance of resistance in the United States could encompass Black Lives Matter, climate activists, the immigrant rights movement, groups against gun violence, college students, labor organizations, and more.
The non-profit media organization Waging Nonviolence further elaborates on how to effectively employ “direct action” against an all-out power grab:
A plan against a coup is better than insurance, as it can reduce the chance that we’ll face a coup attempt. The better prepared we are to counter it, the more likely that wiser heads in the Trump camp will realize that a coup is futile, and not attempt it.
There are many aspects to preparation, and they include developing an overall strategy, a handy list of tactics that are mutually supportive and a communication network. It will help to train as many as possible because at a time of crisis, people look to the “early responders” for a way forward.
Further regarding “direct action,” the media organization Open Democracy advocates getting “people into the mindset of taking action so they don’t freeze,” that they commit ahead of time to take action when confronted with an undemocratic power grab. Their basic plan of action centers on voting, refusing to accept election results until all the votes are counted, nonviolent street protests, and “shut down this country to protect the integrity of the democratic process.”
They echo the importance of pre-empting a coup: “These public commitments ahead of time increase the political cost of attempting a coup—because the best way to stop a coup is to deter it.”
So, at the strategic level, yes, President Biden and the Democrats must make a sincere effort to get voter rights legislation enacted. But the odds are long. That then leaves the tactical level of opposing anti-democratic, authoritarian ploys to steal elections. And that centers on citizen mobilization.
I’ll repeat what I said in a previous commentary, Fascism: Are We There Yet?, “We are at a DEFCON-1 level threat to American democracy.”
And, as for the duty of those citizens who cherish democracy, that great American patriot Thomas Paine said it best: “Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must…undergo the fatigue of supporting it.”
Please also research Rev. Wm. Barber’s POOR PEOPLES CAMPAIGN…..reigniting MLK’s hopes for such. PPP supporters across the country have been trained in civil disobedience, hold regular rallies in states and in D.C. (all poorly covered by media….now is your chance!). I just attended one in D.C. and another is planned for June. Bill Moyers sees civil disobedience as our only hope. Also check out ARM, even active here in Alabama, with zoom trainings in Feb.
Well done, Jim. Now, who or what organizations are likely to be most effective in organizing pre-emotion?