Should We Fear Chinese Aircraft Carriers?
My alma mater's journal, The Naval War College Review, has just published an insightful article on China's growing naval power in its latest edition -- “Beijing’s ‘Starter’ Carrier and Future Steps: Alternatives and Implications.” http://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Review/2012---Winter.aspx
Following are excerpts:
The carrier "is of very limited military utility; it will serve primarily to confer prestige on a rising great power, help the Chinese military master basic procedures of naval airpower, and project a bit of military power—perhaps especially against the smaller neighbors on the periphery of the South China Sea. This is not the beginning of the end; it is the end of the beginning.
To realize its ambitions for the future, China had to start somewhere. Among the likely strategic benefits for China is enhanced regional diplomatic influence. A carrier group would offer immense diplomatic payoff in visible naval presence in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia, along key sea-lanes in the Indian Ocean, and in humanitarian missions throughout the region. Simply steaming aircraft carriers anywhere in the Asia-Pacific would send a strong signal to the region that China’s power is significant. Visiting ports in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in particular would send a powerful political message of expanding Chinese military might."
As I see it, it is important to watch China's development of its naval power in the coming two decades. The U.S. currently has 11 aircraft carriers at a cost of roughly $24 billion apiece. Italy has two. Russia, France, the United Kingdom, India, Spain, Brazil and Thailand each have one. China has announced plans to build four carriers by the 2020s. Thus, in ten years, China's fleet of carriers will surpass most of the world's blue-water navies. China's carrier fleet will be in a position to alter the Pacific geopolitical configuration, easily securing passage throughout the South China Sea and Indian Ocean, not to mention the Taiwan Strait.
China is decades away from putting into place the extremely complex and costly human, financial and logistical infrastructure needed to support aircraft carriers and associated weapons systems, something the U.S. has been developing for a century now. And once it does have a carrier group in place, the primary potential threat will be toward China's Asian neighbors more than the United States. But Beijing has taken the first step, an event which gives great concern to its regional neighbors. The latter are quietly clamoring for increased U.S. military presence, including former enemies such as Vietnam. China's growing naval power is a factor that requires rigorous study in U.S. strategic planning over the next three decades at least.