How Populist Strongmen Wreck Diplomacy and Foreign Ministries: Now It's Our Turn
Trumptator
Two years ago, a senior Washington-based State Department diplomat told me, "When our country starts following Trump’s ‘charge them, cheat them and leave them’ business model, no one will trust our word, our alliances or our loyalty. The American diplomat will go the way of the Edsel salesman, with one small exception. No Edsel salesman ever stood in front of a war crimes commission, whereas, under some scenarios, some of my colleagues who stay in the Foreign Service might someday do so."
Preposterous? In my three previous essays, I describe a State Department in crisis, ask what U.S. diplomats should do when faced with carrying out illegal or immoral policies, and ponder when it is appropriate to refuse to carry out orders - serious concerns when working for a Putin wannabe. I cite the example of the senior Trump official who last September wrote an anonymous op-ed in the New York Times describing how a coterie of insiders works to thwart Trump's worst instincts and policies. And I relate the cases of German diplomats who sacrificed their lives resisting Hitler rather than compromise their moral conscience.
The U.S. Department of State is being hollowed out and marginalized. Trump has sought to slash its budget. Almost a third of senior positions go unfilled. Ninety-one percent of key policy positions are occupied by political hacks as are nearly half of ambassadorships; applications for the Foreign Service Officer Test have plummeted. Senior diplomats are being blackballed from desirable jobs on flimsy grounds. Many fear speaking out - to the press, to outsiders, even their friends. And many are seeking refuge in marginal positions, waiting for Hurricane Trump to blow itself out to sea.
Hannah Arendt had it right: an autocratic system “invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.” Iran-busting John Bolton anyone? Rapture Ready Mike Pompeo?
Populist foreign policy exhibits several key traits. Tufts University Prof. Daniel Drezner notes that populist leaders carry out foreign policy less as an institutionalized set of goals than as an idiosyncratic expression of their personality and charisma. Distorted debates, facile solutions, and disingenuous intentions are additional hallmarks of a populist foreign policy, according to Dutch populism expert Cas Mudde. Expertise and professionalism are sneered upon. Process is rejected. These arguably describe America's situation today.
We are only at the beginning stage of self-destruction under the Trump regime. To grasp what the future will bring to our foreign policy apparatus, one needs only to look at other countries, most of which started earlier on the populist road to national unraveling.
Turkey: After the 2016 coup attempt, Erdogan launched a broad purge of government institutions, including the foreign ministry. With no evidence, more than one-third of career diplomats were labeled terrorists and fired. Of these, the authorities arrested 249. And more than 100 diplomats were tortured. BTW, five were Harvard grads. Being a Turkish diplomat today is like inhabiting the Land of the Living Dead.
Philippines: President Duterte's foreign policy can best be described as surreal. He withdrew senior diplomats and threatened to declare war against Canada over a garbage controversy, escalated the killing of a Filipino laborer in Kuwait into a full-fledged crisis - then backed down, and called on smaller countries to be "meek" and "humble" in exchange for China’s "mercy." His foreign secretary, Alan Cayetano, blurted "F*** the international community" in response foreign criticism over extrajudicial killings. A number of career Filipino diplomats sent a letter to Duterte calling for Cayetano's and his close aides' resignations for gross incompetence.
A Filipino writer blogged, “How much more embarrassment and consternation are the country’s diplomats willing to endure before they put their heads together again and demand from the government they serve a more intelligent, consistent and coherent foreign affairs policy anchored on justice, truth, and the rule of law in the attainment of the well-being, progress and security of the Filipino people and nation?”
Brazil: From The Guardian - "It has long been considered one of the jewels of Latin American statecraft; a shrewd, dependable and highly trained foreign service that helped make Brazil a global climate leader and soft power heavyweight. But six months into the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, even veteran diplomats struggle to mask their horror at the wrecking ball being taken to the country’s nearly two century-old foreign office, known as Itamaraty after the 19th-century Rio palace where it was once housed. 'Our current foreign policy takes Brazil back to a period of history at which Brazil didn’t even exist: the Middle Ages,' complained Roberto Abdenur, a former ambassador to China, Germany and the U.S. 'This is really wrong,' Abdenur said. 'It was never common in Itamaraty for there to be witch-hunts or mass sackings or transfers when governments changed, in order to punish.'"
Hungary: Viktor Orban has needlessly provoked crises with neighbors Romania and Ukraine and NATO ally the Netherlands over flimsy issues and, like his new found pal, Donald Trump, has sidled up to Vladimir Putin. Nonetheless, Hungarian diplomats report they’ve been instructed to limit and report any contact with American officials. What are "allies" for, after all? Hungarian diplomats, by tradition, are very cautious. Unlike their Filipino counterparts, they don't rebel. But one wonders how the professionals at Bem rakpart are faring under "The Viktator."
UK: For a preview of coming attractions just look to our "mother country." Boris Johnson - and Trump clone - served as Theresa May's foreign secretary for two chaotic years. A senior FCO official said, “He was entirely focused on his own advancement and promotion. He spent his whole time grandstanding and driving people to distraction. He had no grasp of details. He had appalling relations with No 10. There was not a single European minister who took him seriously. It was all bluff, bluff and seat-of-the-pants stuff. He was exasperating and there was a massive sigh of relief when he left the building… No one has created more havoc to less effect in terms of British interests.” Ah! But now his slovenliness is slated to become prime minister. The FCO folks better brace themselves. Like the State Department, this grand old institution, employing some of Britain's smartest people, will follow in the wake of the Titanic toward a massive karmic iceberg under Boris.
"Under Trump, the practice of American diplomacy will become far more difficult, thankless, and dangerous than it is now," a prescient senior U.S. diplomat told me two years ago. "The mere fact that Trump has made it so far has made it harder for American diplomats." An active duty mid-level officer confided recently, "I promised myself I would stick it out as long as I could. It is getting harder."
You ain't seen nothing yet.
See also ~
The Conscience of a Diplomat: When It’s OK to Buck Orders