Dispatches From Exile: Weekly Mind Dump 5/21-27/2023
Should the U.S. and Russia fade into the recesses of history, rest assured, Xi Jinping is ready to launch Pax Sinica and the Chinese Century.
Last week China hosted the first China-Central Asia Summit in X’ian. The leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met with Chinese president Xi Jinping to discuss drawing up “a new blueprint” for the region. And, oh, Russia was not invited.
I think this summit was under-reported, the media taken up as it is with Ukraine events and America’s self-destructive politics. It marks Beijing’s formal step forward in expanding its influence in a region rich in resources, low in population and a with a receding Russian footprint (Russia’s pale imitation of NATO, the CSTO — which includes three of the Summit members— is falling apart).
For geopolitics nerds like myself, China’s initiative offers a groaning buffet of Bismarckean power plays, Metternichean maneuvers and Mackinderean dimensions. It marks a new chapter in the Great Game of major powers seeking to edge each other out on a grand scale for political, economic and cultural advantage. On this, Henry Kissinger’s 100th birthday, there is much to feast on on the chessboard of history.
Did you know that until 1858, the city that is now called Vladivostok (“Ruler of the East”) was Haishenwai, Chinese territory? The great European powers took advantage of the Qing Dynasty’s weakened condition from the Taiping Rebellion to compel it to cede control of various regions of China, including Haishenwai, under the so-called “unequal treaties.” This act of raw imperialism by foreign powers grates on the Chinese people to this day.
Moreover, Mongolia was under Qing Dynasty control for around 300 years until the 1920s, when the Soviet Union held sway until its own collapse in 1991. There are other examples throughout the region, not least the Chinese-created Silk Road linking trade between Asia and Europe for over 15 centuries.
In other words, China has had as much influence historically over Central Asia as have the upstart Russians, if not more so. And history may now be ebbing from Moscow and flowing toward Beijing in Central Asia.
As Russia enervates itself pointlessly trying to land blows on that tough Tar Baby called Ukraine, expect the seams to fray in a corruption-ridden, economically shallow successor nation held together with spit, chewing gum and brute force — what Vernon Walters dismissively called, “Upper Volta with nuclear weapons,” and John McCain referred to sneeringly as, “A gas station masquerading as a country.” The latter-day Mandarins to the east, meanwhile, watch and wait, ready, as with the Central Asia Summit, to step in to plot new projects for the Belt and Road, and in the process displace Slavic with Sinic culture.
In my last piece, “Who’s Blowing Stuff Up Inside Russia?” (which I strongly recommend you read), I posit the following:
Washington policymakers view a breakup of Russia with deep concern and most oppose it. There are the nuclear weapons to worry about. Then likely conflicts among the newly independent nations over resources, borders and ethnic rivalries. Not to mention an expansionist China inserting itself. And the prospect of a grudge-filled revanchist Russia evokes post-World War I Germany. Après nous, le déluge. Putin’s successor(s) could make him look competent and judicious.
Few experts are predicting it, but most cannot rule out Russia’s 21 republics and 49 territories succumbing to geopolitical centrifugal forces away from Moscow Center and toward independence in the event of the Putin regime’s collapse. It would constitute Devolution Act II — the Soviet Union’s breakup being Act I.
Another delicious course to savor for us voracious geopolitics nerds.
But lest we gloat, we must face up to the possible devolution of another Great Power — the United States. I’ve been struck by the alarm bells being rung with heightened urgency by American historians and political scientists over the real risk of the American people ditching 247 years of democracy. Historian Jon Meacham says, “Democracy is hanging by a thread. This is democracy’s hour of maximum danger.” Fellow historian Michael Beschloss echoes this, “We are all in existential danger of having our democracy and democracies around the world destroyed.” Sean Wilentz, prizewinning author of “The Rise of American Democracy: Jefferson to Lincoln,” has also voiced alarm, “We’re on the verge of what Hamilton in ‘The Federalist’ called government by brute force.” Eight out of 10 Americans believe the U.S. faces a threat to democracy, according to a 2022 NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll.
The cause boils down to mass social and political ennui stoked by a morally bankrupt Republican Party. Should we and Russia go the way of Stuarts and Romanovs, rest assured, Xi Jinping is ready to launch Pax Sinica and the Chinese Century.
The opinions and characterizations in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent official positions of the U.S. government.