Biden's First Half Year: The View From an Outsider
Other nations observe us closely. A diplomatic dispatch from the embassy of a friendly country would look much like this.
As a diplomat serving in a variety of countries, my main task was to put my hand on the pulse of society, write up my impressions and send my reports and analyses to Washington, often with some policy recommendations. I provide here a diplomatic dispatch from the perspective of an outsider (not quite in “exile”) - embassy Political Counselor Paul Poloff from the (fictitious) Republic of Patria, a good friend of the U.S.
CONFIDENTIAL
FROM: EMBASSY WASHINGTON
TO: FOREIGN MINISTRY PATRIA CITY
SUBJECT: BIDEN ADMINISTRATION: THE FIRST HALF YEAR
BEGIN SUMMARY: While President Joe Biden got off to a good start with an ambitious agenda, prospects are mixed as to how successful he will be in achieving his major goals. An equally divided Senate and a recalcitrant Republican Party veering into neo-fascism are his prime obstacles. While successes in dealing with COVID and a resurgent U.S. economy have kept his approval rating in healthy territory, conservative opposition in “red” states remains steadfast, even as COVID fatalities among the unvaccinated in those states are rising. Republican politicians with whom we’ve spoken display a marked and disturbing cynicism, hypocrisy and greed. In foreign policy, most Americans approve of Biden’s tough stance toward Russia and China, repairing relations with allies and his decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. We recommend that Patria support Biden through cooperative economic policies and high-level official visits. A return to office by Trump or another far-right populist politician would spell disaster for our relations (and frankly those of the world) with Washington, compelling us to seek out alternative security and trade arrangements, for which we need to quietly prepare. END SUMMARY.
The United States is still dusting itself off following the near apocalyptic demise of the disastrous Trump administration. President Biden has been seeking to calm social and political tensions by his reassuring grandfatherly demeanor, temperate public remarks and rather low profile. As the Guardian newspaper described him, Biden is “a conservative institutionalist who…remains an evangelist for bipartisanship…and reduces the noise of the Trump era to sometimes a literal whisper.” But he is anything but passive in forging ahead with his infrastructure, family aid and voting rights bills. Republican Senator Ted Cruz told Ambassador Legatum that the president is “boring but radical.” And at a recent foreign policy forum GOP Senator Josh Hawley told the ambassador, “What a uniter Joe Biden is! You know this is Mr. Unity, or so he thinks. And yet if you disagree with him, you’re a Neanderthal.” A close aide to Republican Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell confided in this polcouns, “The senator used Trump to accomplish his goals of packing the courts and getting tax cuts.” He added that Trump’s usefulness is now over and that most Republicans expect him to fade away, opening up the field for more promising, younger candidates.
We are struck by the raw cynicism and two-facedness of Republican politicians like Cruz, Hawley and the other arch-conservative firebrands. In discussions with us and diplomatic colleagues in other embassies, they are gracious, charming and talk of the need to work more closely with America’s allies, like Patria. But when addressing public audiences, they don a mantle of fiery belligerence and outright enmity toward Democrats. Add to that a heavy dollop of xenophobia. Their demeanour is Jekyll and Hyde. This leads us to conclude that they are driven solely by power, ego and self-aggrandisement, the best interests of the nation be damned.
Moderates of both parties with whom we are in contact hope that as Biden’s progressive policies take firm root and Americans begin to feel their positive effects, anger will subside, populism and its avatars will wane and bipartisanship will gradually return to the political arena. After all, COVID cases and deaths have decreased by over 90 percent since Biden took office, real GDP has increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of this year as business and travel recover. Unemployment is at a fairly low 5.9 percent, with labor shortages reported in many sectors. And the stock market indices have hit new highs. The latest polls show Biden’s overall approval rating is at 63 percent.
But we urge caution here. After all, conservative opposition in “red” states remains puzzlingly steadfast, even as COVID fatalities among the unvaccinated in those states are surging. America’s right-wing media, notably Fox-News, are largely to blame as they continue to deceive gullible listeners with apocrypha and outright lies. What makes a third of Americans act like ignorant, superstitious 13th century peasants is a subject for a separate telegram.
Polls also show approval of the president’s foreign policy at a considerably lower 54 percent. The disparity is explained by lack of public confidence in the administration’s handling of resurgent illegal immigration, a daunting problem Biden has assigned to his vice president to resolve. His decision to pull out of Afghanistan, on the other hand, is popular with the American people, who are fed up with costly “forever wars.” Conversely, in a recent survey of twelve nations, 75 percent expressed confidence in Biden, compared with 17 percent for Trump.
Biden’s reversal of Trump’s isolationist MAGA agenda, his repairing relations with allies and his tough stance vis-a-vis Russia and China meet with popular approval. Ukrainian ambassador Rozumnov stated to Ambassador Legatum, “We put up with a lot with Trump and his band of criminals trying to bribe and strong-arm us, to serve Trump’s political interests and to sell out to Putin. Now we can breathe easily. We again feel that America has our back.” And German polcouns Klugermann told this polcouns, “Word from Berlin is that Chancellor Merkel is practically dancing with joy that she can leave office knowing that Germany has a true friend in the White House.”
On the other hand, British ambassador Fezziwig, at our Patria National Day celebration, citing Winston Churchill, warned, “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities.” He added, “I’m not so sure this time.”
COMMENT: Amb. Fezziwig hit on the central question. Can we, America’s friends and allies, still count on Washington doing the right thing in the end? Or, are we witnessing the slow degradation of another great civilization whose last days have come, a death star whose imminent implosion will take us with it into a black hole of oblivion? Michael Bröning, executive director of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, told us in a recent Zoom call, “The danger is that there’s just this political yo-yo effect where you switch from one president to the next and then everything gets scrapped and you start from scratch. The question is, how many times can you turn the tables without really damaging the china?” As President Biden struggles to right the ship of state, he will need all the help he can get. We recommend that we propose state visits between our two countries and intensify cooperation in trade and security. This should be coordinated with our allies. At the same time, our policy planners and think tankers need to quietly begin studying alternative economic and security arrangements in the future should Death Star America prove to be just that. The future security and prosperity of the Patrian people may depend on it.
LEGATUM