Afghanistan: Don't Believe Everything You Read & Hear, Part 2
In these hyper-politicized times, partisans and others are too quick to jump to conclusions based on rumors and partial information.
I continue to be disappointed with much of the news reporting I’m seeing on Afghanistan. Previously, I highlighted erroneous and misleading reporting by major news outlets regarding widely accepted shibboleths, the resistance and the evacuation. Too much of the reporting is facile, shallow and hair-trigger in judgment. It hasn’t abated. So, I’ve decided to continue to cover these, while also providing an insider’s insights on how policy is made in government, the nuances of which mainstream reporters usually miss or misread.
Zalmay Khalilzad: Screw-up or Loyal Public Servant?
Zalmay Khalilzad has been the indispensable man on Afghanistan for four U.S. presidents - three Republicans and one Democrat (Biden). A Pashtun born in Mazar-i-Sharif, he is one more shining example of an immigrant who has achieved the American Dream. Highlights of his meteoric diplomatic career include having been ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the United Nations. His career has included senior positions at State and the Pentagon, stints at top think tanks and business consulting. Since 2018, he has been the U.S.’s point-man for negotiating an Afghanistan settlement. He knows the players, Taliban as well as Afghan government leaders, intimately.
With the swift collapse of the Afghan government, Khalilzad has come under scathing criticism. Indeed, he told Congress as recently as May,
If they [Taliban] pursue, in my judgment, a military victory, it will result in a long war, because Afghan security forces will fight, other Afghans will fight, neighbors will come to support different forces…I personally believe that the statements that the [Afghan] forces will disintegrate, and the Talibs will take over in short order are mistaken. The real choice that the Afghans will face is between a long war and negotiated settlement.
“In light of this catastrophe, Ambassador Khalilzad should resign immediately or be relieved from his position,” Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL), an Afghan military vet, wrote to President Biden.
Ryan Crocker, ambassador to Afghanistan under Barack Obama, denounced the 2019 agreement Khalilzad brokered with the Taliban as “surrender talks.”
Afghans commenting in my LinkedIn page are scathing of Khalilzad, accusing him of “having betrayed both the U.S. and Afghanistan” and of being “a useless person.”
I think his critics may be confusing the person with the policy. In other words, the true blame lies with the last two U.S. presidents and, frankly their predecessors going back to George W. Bush.
I worked with Khalilzad when he was on State’s Policy Planning staff when Washington supported the mujahideen against the Soviet occupation in the late ‘80s. I don’t accept at face value charges that Khalilzad free-booted and single-handedly sold Afghanistan down the river. It’s not how diplomacy works (except perhaps under Trump). Policy is hashed out inter-agency, managed by the NSC. Negotiators are then given their instructions in writing, duly signed off by the relevant agencies, in this case, NSC, State, DoD, perhaps DHS, with intelligence back-up provided by the intelligence community via the DNI. A memo goes to the president for his approval/disapproval/revision. Once signed off by POTUS, the negotiator(s) has his/her marching orders.
In my experience, Khalilzad was methodical, careful to consult with all the major players. Anything but a cowboy. Though it was years ago, I doubt he’s changed a whole lot. Khalilzad is at heart a political scientist, an (sometimes tedious) intellectual who carefully organizes his thoughts and thinks carefully prior to speaking. He exudes charm and friendly engagement as a diplomat. And he’s nobody’s fool.
My guess (and it’s only a guess) is that Trump, followed by Biden instructed him to conclude an agreement that would get the U.S. out ASAP even if it required major concessions. No one at the top anticipated the Afghan government would fold like a house of cards. Most senior diplomats face having to carry out difficult, problematic and sometimes no-win orders in their careers. And when things go south, often are scapegoated for an administration’s failed policy.
We’ll know the full truth once the policy directives are declassified and released one day. Unfortunately, this likely won’t be for many years - unless congressional hearings hasten their release.
Khalilzad has been utterly silent. Once back as a private citizen, he will be freer to defend his actions and even privately leak key details. But until the full official record is made public, it would be wise to withhold judgment.
“The Taliban Are Holding Americans Hostage at Mazar-i-Sharif Airport!” - NOT
Two charter aircraft scheduled to take off from Mazar-i-Sharif airport with American citizens and others have been held up by the Taliban for several days.
“This is really…turning into a hostage situation where they’re not going to allow American citizens to leave until they get full recognition from the United States of America,” proclaimed Michael McCaul (R-TX), top-ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
“Joe Biden abandoned Americans in Afghanistan… Now there are deeply disturbing reports of a hostage crisis,” bellowed Sen. Ted Cruz.
“The reason the Taliban wants to prevent these people from leaving is likely because they intend to punish them for their cooperation with the U.S.,” Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official, told The New York Times.
Wrong.
It turns out that red tape got in the way. Taliban officials stated that some of the passengers on the manifest lacked travel documentation which they wanted fixed before they would clear the flights for departure.
The State Department is working several channels, importantly including Qatar, with the Taliban to resolve the devilish details and expedite clearance.
Over 250 foreign nationals, including Americans, took off from Kabul this week with no controversy. Secretary Blinken said the administration has been “assured” by the Taliban that American and Afghan citizens with valid travel documents will be allowed to depart.
They have a saying in Texas: “An empty bucket makes the loudest racket.” Ever hear that one Congressman McCaul and Senator Cruz?
This story flashed through news channels like greased lightning. I recall in diplomatic history wars being started, or almost, over vacuous rumors supercharged by baseless accusations spewed by empty-bucket-brained politicians.
“Remember the Maine!”
“This government wants Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead.”
“Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised.”
As with the steel-trap conclusions about Khalilzad and the uber-criticism of the chaotic yet largely successful evacuation from Kabul, too many folks, aided by internet electrons as a force multiplier, jump to the direst of conclusions absent hard evidence before your first sip of morning coffee.
Which gets me to the American citizens remaining in Afghanistan. Chicken Little’s run around with their feathers on fire, denouncing the State Department for incompetence and the Taliban as hostage-takers. In the fog of war, details are blurry. I’ve been involved in cases of Americans being either kidnapped or seized by hostile governments or guerrilla groups. I learned the best approach is to get all the facts first. Then come up with a carefully thought-out plan to get them out, preferably after consulting with those who may know more about the matter than you. In fact, I had to do apply this approach toward my own seizure and incarceration twice - but on my own.
The State Department estimates 100 to 200 American citizens remain in Afghanistan based on texting communications and other data. House minority leader Kevin McCarthy has thrown out the figure, 10,000 to 15,000, which is blatantly preposterous. Some NGOer’s claim the State Department hasn’t been in touch with hundreds of others.
Here’s the low-down. The State Department encourages citizens to register their presence in a country online with the relevant U.S. embassy. Many do. Many don’t. Those who do, mostly, neglect to de-register themselves when they leave.
Then laypeople confuse “citizens” with “permanent residents” - i.e., “green card holders.” The latter technically are not entitled to the same protections as citizens. But in an emergency situation like Afghanistan, the USG pulls out all the stops for both groups.
Most citizens and permanent residents still in Afghanistan appear to be dual nationals and Afghan nationals holding green cards. Many choose to remain voluntarily. More devil in the details stuff.
Rest assured, based on what we’ve seen so far, the Taliban likely won’t hinder their departure, should they choose to leave. And the State Department will move heaven and earth to get them out.
In these hyper-politicized times, partisans and others are too quick to jump to conclusions based on rumors and partial information, which makes sorting out the truth and publicizing it that more challenging.
That’s about it for this version of “Don’t Believe Everything You Read & Hear.” Stay tuned, for there assuredly will be more.