The Russia-Ukraine Slugfest
We should stand fast with our Ukrainian friends in demanding, at the very least, a TKO which will usher Putin out on a stretcher.
When he narrowly defeated Sugar Ray Robinson in the first of their two epic fights in September 1957, the Associated Press reported that middleweight champion Carmen Basilio “shook off punches that would have knocked down a horse.” Legendary boxing trainer Angelo Dundee declared Basilio was the most determined fighter he had ever seen. Muhammad Ali said Sugar Ray Robinson was “one of the best pound-for-pound fighters to have ever lived in this century.” Robinson was six pounds heavier and five inches taller than his wiry opponent. In their rematch the following year, Robinson won the 15 rounder by hair-breadth decision, but he was so exhausted and in pain that his handlers had to take him back him back to his dressing room on a stretcher.
The two boxing legends were as different from each other as night and day. Robinson was arrogant and full of himself. Basilio, the “Onion Farmer” from a small Upstate New York village, was humble and big-hearted.
The Russia-Ukraine War is, if anything, a slugfest between a feisty underdog and a lumbering goliath. The question is whether either opponent has the stamina and will power to go a full 15 rounds. And, if so, would either emerge a clear victor? It is the fear of upscaling death and devastation and the potentially uncontrollable repercussions on European security and the global economy that has prompted Washington and some Europeans to discreetly nudge President Zelensky to consider initiating negotiations with Moscow.
But to negotiate what? How much territory Ukraine should cede to a voracious autocrat? How much sovereignty to sacrifice to a stunted hyper-paranoid?
That distinguished statesman and diplomatist Elon Musk has pulled out of his hat a ludicrous appeasement “peace settlement” proposal that would make Neville Chamberlain proud. And one of those highly-respected-by-the-Washington- Establishment-Blob journalists Robert Wright states in a Washington Post editorial, that the time has come for “Biden to steer Ukraine toward the [negotiating] table.” I intend to write a separate piece on all this nonsense. Stay tuned.
The Ukrainians have made it amply clear that 1) they can take the punishment that an increasingly desperate Putin hurls at them, and 2) they are convinced that an utter defeat inflicted on the Russians is the only way to guarantee Ukraine’s freedom and territorial integrity.
I see Volodymyr Zelensky as the Carmen Basilio in this fight. He’s dogged, unyielding and laser-focused on his people’s determination to survive this existential struggle and rebuild their nation. Ukraine, like the boxer, is smaller, but steely, dogged and skilled in delivering pain on its bigger opponent.
Putin will lose this ill-chosen war of aggression. And the West needs to stick by Ukraine’s side in ensuring Putin’s demise. His defeat devolves on two key factors: a steadily deteriorating Russian economy, and lack of will power among Russian troops and the population compared to that of the Ukrainians.
Economic Costs
As I’ve indicated previously, Moscow’s “center of gravity” is its highly vulnerable, undiversified economy. We need to hasten the Russian economy’s flush down the toilet. Figures released by Russia’s Finance Ministry last month show a key economic indicator — tax revenue from the non-oil and gas sector — declined 20 percent in October compared with the previous year. And the Russian government’s statistics agency Rosstat reported that retail sales fell 10 percent compared with a year ago.
“All objective indicators show there is a very strong drop in economic activity,” said Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister. “The spiral is escalating, and there is no way out of this now.” Add to this a November report by the Central Bank warning that Russia’s GDP will contract 7.1 percent in the last quarter of 2022, after falling 4.1 percent and 4 percent compared with last year’s previous two quarters. Russia has defaulted on its foreign bonds for the first time since the 1917 Bolshevik revolution. Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina told lawmakers last month that the Russian economy has officially entered into recession. “Things may get worse,” she added.
The European Union and G-7 countries have just slapped a $60/barrel ceiling on Russian oil, which may cost the Russian budget at least $120 million in lost revenue per day, according to former deputy energy minister Milov. Moreover, gas production has dropped 20 percent compared with 2021. The military cost of the war alone so far has cost Moscow around $110 billion, or nearly 6 percent of the 2021 GDP.
Economic sanctions take time. Patience is essential.
Political Costs
The political costs are no less severe, and getting worse.
Political scientist Janusz Bugajski maintains that the oncoming disintegration of the Russian Federation will constitute the third phase of imperial collapse after the unraveling of the Warsaw Pact in the late 1980s and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. He describes the Russian Federation as “a centralized neo-imperial construct” which “is approaching the end of a regime cycle in which the political status quo is becoming increasingly precarious.” Fragmentation will grow as increasing numbers of Russians view the Putin regime as illegitimate, conflicts erupt among the elites and nationalism grows in the constituent republics. Bugajski predicts Russia could face either the Soviet or the Yugoslav scenario of collapse — in other words, a sudden omnibus devolution, or a peeling away of one republic after another.
Change Can Come Fast
Having studied political change closely for many years as a diplomat, I know that it can come suddenly, with little warning. In early 1917, a pessimistic Lenin lamented that he likely would not live to see the revolution for which he fought; a few weeks later, the czar was overthrown.
Putin is no different from historical antecedents, strongmen who ruled the roost for a period of time, only to be unceremoniously tossed onto the trash heap of history. At heart, he is: 1) a Russian nationalist, and 2) a KGB officer. I see a Soviet leader minus the ideology but awash in plundered wealth, backed by a coterie of corrupt robber baron oligarchs and a security thugocracy. Psychologically a captive of his country’s violent past and hindered development, he views events in terms of encircling enemies, ethnic tribalism and ancient glory. Autocrats do not rely on a viable political system to move forward, but on their ephemeral personality and skill in manipulating others. They sit on a house of cards that ultimately folds, often suddenly.
And this gets to willpower. My heart breaks when I see drone videos of half-frozen Russian troops, too weak to run, being blown to bits by Ukrainian bombs. Many are mobiki, conscripts with little training, inadequate weapons and supplies and no willingness to be attacking their neighbor. The Ukrainians get this and exploit it to the max. “The moral is to the physical as three is to one,” Napoleon said. In other words, troops’ fighting spirit is key to the outcome of a battle. With motivated soldiers a commander can defeat a force three times the size of his own. Conversely, if your troops don’t believe in the mission and suffer from low morale, your chance of success on the battlefield is greatly reduced, if not doomed. The Ukrainians clearly beat the Russians in the fighting spirit category.
Carmen Basilio got it too. And as Angelo Dundee to our Ukrainian friends, we should stand fast with them in demanding, at the very least, a TKO which will usher Putin out on a stretcher.
The opinions and characterizations in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent official positions of the U.S. government.